GRDN
Earnings in 1 day · May 6, 2026 · After close
Signal
Mixed11
Price
1
Move-1.95%Negative session
Volume
1
Volume0.7× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
TrendFull UptrendAbove 50D & 200D
PRICE
Prev Close
37.37
Open
37.19
Day Range36.02 – 37.44
36.02
37.44
52W Range19.17 – 41.36
19.17
41.36
79% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
413.7K
Float
63.3M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
47.0x
Premium valuation
EPS (TTM)
$0.78
Div Yield
No dividend
Performance
1D
-1.95%
5D
-2.16%
1M
-4.68%
3M
+16.54%
6M
+28.61%
YTD
+21.77%
1Y
+44.08%
Best: 1Y (+44.08%)Worst: 1M (-4.68%)
Quick Read
Earnings in 2d · May 6
Trend
UPTREND
Price above SMA50 & SMA200
Momentum
BULLISH
price above key MAs · revenue +18% YoY
Valuation
EXPENSIVE
P/E 47x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 1.4 · FCF $1.27/sh
Strong Buy
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$2.32B
Revenue TTM$1.45B
Net Income TTM$49.22M
Free Cash Flow$80.71M
Gross Margin19.5%
Net Margin3.4%
Operating Margin6.1%
Return on Equity27.5%
Return on Assets11.9%
Debt / Equity0.22
Current Ratio1.38
EPS TTM$0.78
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

New facility contract wins and same-facility prescription volume growth (bed census rates)

Generic drug deflation trends and PBM reimbursement rate changes affecting gross margins

M&A activity in fragmented long-term care pharmacy market (roll-up consolidation thesis)

Regulatory changes to Medicare Part D and Medicaid reimbursement for institutional pharmacy

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

low - Institutional pharmacy services demonstrate counter-cyclical characteristics as elderly populations require consistent medication regardless of economic conditions. Long-term care facility demand is driven by demographic aging (10,000 Americans turn 65 daily) rather than discretionary spending. However, Medicaid reimbursement to facilities (50-70% of nursing home revenue) can face state budget pressure during recessions, potentially impacting facility financial health and Guardian's customer base stability.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates create moderate headwinds through two channels: (1) higher financing costs for facility customers who operate on thin margins with significant debt, potentially leading to facility closures or payment delays, and (2) increased cost of capital for Guardian's own growth investments and potential M&A activity in this roll-up consolidation story. The 0.19 debt/equity ratio suggests limited direct interest expense sensitivity, but valuation multiples (25.3x EV/EBITDA) for unprofitable growth companies compress when rates rise as investors demand higher returns.

Key Risks

Medicare Part D and Medicaid reimbursement cuts to institutional pharmacy services as federal and state governments address healthcare cost inflation, potentially compressing already thin margins

Vertical integration by large pharmacy chains (CVS, Walgreens) or PBMs acquiring institutional pharmacy capabilities and leveraging scale advantages

Shift toward home-based care and away from institutional long-term care facilities reducing addressable market for nursing home pharmacy services

Investor Profile

growth - The stock attracts growth investors betting on healthcare services consolidation, demographic tailwinds from aging populations, and the company's ability to achieve operating leverage as it scales. The 64% one-year return and negative current profitability indicate momentum-oriented investors are driving recent appreciation based on revenue growth (17.4%) and M&A speculation rather than current earnings. High valuation multiples (25.3x EV/EBITDA despite negative EBITDA) suggest investors are paying for future profitability potential and market share gains in a fragmented industry.

Watch on Earnings
Medicare Part D reimbursement rate changes and Medicaid pharmacy fee schedules by stateLong-term care facility occupancy rates and skilled nursing industry bankruptcy filingsGeneric drug price index (NADAC) trends and brand-to-generic conversion ratesHealthcare services M&A multiples and institutional pharmacy sector consolidation activity
Health Radar
4 strong2 watch
76/100
Liquidity
1.38Watch
Leverage
0.22Strong
Coverage
133.7xStrong
ROE
27.5%Strong
ROIC
22.3%Strong
Cash
$66MWatch
ANALYST COVERAGE3 analysts
BUY
+3.7%upside to target
L $36.00
Med $38.00consensus
H $40.00
Buy
3100%
3 Buy (100%)0 Hold (0%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
6 of 7 signals bullish
9/10
Trend
Trend StateUptrend (price above both MAs)
Above SMA 50$35.92 (+2.0%)
Above SMA 200$29.75 (+23.2%)
Technicals
MA AlignmentGolden Cross (50D vs 200D +20.7%)
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.38
~
Upcoming Events
EEarnings Report · After CloseMay 6, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 3, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 27, 2026
In 114 days
Technicals
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$41.36+12.9%
Current
$36.64
SMA 50
$35.92-2.0%
SMA 200
$29.75-18.8%
52W Low
$19.17-47.7%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week high
$19.1779th %ile$41.36
Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 4 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2024
$1.2B
$1.2B$1.2B
$0.19
±1%
Low2
FY2025
$1.4B
$1.4B$1.5B
+17.8%$0.98+408.2%
±2%
Moderate3
FY2026(current)
$1.4B
$1.4B$1.4B
-1.9%$1.23+24.7%
±2%
Moderate4
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryGRDN
Last 6Q
-182.9%avg beat
Beat 4 of 6 quartersMissed 2 Estimates rising
-1153%
Q4'24
+14%
Q1'25
-5%
Q2'25
+5%
Q3'25
+4%
Q4'25
+37%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Pharmacy Investors,…10%
$24.6M
Mar 20
SELL
Morris David KDir
$5.6M
Mar 20
SELL
Burke FredDir
$19.9M
Mar 20
SELL
Forbes KendallSee Remarks
$10.3M
Mar 20
SELL
Cardinal Equity Fun…10%
$8.2M
Mar 20
SELL
Salentine Thomas J …Dir
$106.0M
Mar 20
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Nuveen, LLC
537K
2
PEREGRINE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
202K
3
Inspire Investing, LLC
50K
4
KORNITZER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC /KS
42K
5
Sterling Capital Management LLC
20K
6
TEACHER RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF TEXAS
8K
7
STEPHENS INC /AR/
8K
8
KLP KAPITALFORVALTNING AS
7K
News & Activity

GRDN News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

No company information available

PeersHealth Care(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
GRDN
-1.95%
$68.99+0.00%$13.4B1500
$91.17+0.00%$12.0B-4239.0%1500
$518.66+0.96%$11.9B-3008.0%1500
$223.70+8.31%$11.4B+6554.5%-2868.8%1500
$76.39+0.00%$10.7B52.9+2325815.3%-19.7%1500
$182.03+0.00%$10.6B1500
Sector avg+1.05%52.9+1166184.9%-2533.9%1500