WTI crude oil spot price and forward curve shape (contango vs backwardation affects hedging economics)
Permian Basin horizontal well productivity metrics (IP rates, EUR per lateral foot in Wolfcamp A/B)
Drilling and completion cost efficiency (D&C costs per lateral foot, days to drill)
Production growth rates and capital allocation decisions (reinvestment rate vs shareholder returns)
high - Oil prices are highly correlated with global GDP growth, industrial activity, and transportation fuel demand. Permian producers like HighPeak experience amplified sensitivity due to operational leverage and lack of downstream integration. Recessions typically compress WTI prices 30-50%, directly impacting cash flows and equity valuations.
Rising rates have moderate negative impact through two channels: (1) higher cost of capital reduces PV-10 valuations of proved reserves and makes drilling economics less attractive, and (2) stronger USD from rate hikes typically pressures oil prices. With minimal debt (0.02 D/E), direct financing cost impact is negligible, but equity valuation multiples compress as discount rates rise.
Energy transition and peak oil demand concerns create long-term valuation overhang on fossil fuel producers, limiting multiple expansion despite strong cash flows
Permian Basin infrastructure constraints (takeaway capacity, water disposal, labor availability) can limit production growth and compress local pricing differentials
Regulatory risks including federal leasing restrictions, methane emission rules, and potential carbon pricing that increase operating costs
value - The stock trades at 0.7x P/S and 0.4x P/B with 10.5% FCF yield, attracting deep value investors betting on commodity price recovery and asset monetization. The -62.7% one-year return and depressed valuation suggest contrarian positioning. Not suitable for income investors (no dividend mentioned) or growth-at-any-price buyers given negative revenue growth.
Trend
+11.3% vs SMA 50 · +14.6% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2025 | $858.1M $830.5M–$885.7M | — | $0.43 | — | ±13% | Low2 |
FY2026(current) | $874.1M $870.2M–$878.0M | ▲ +1.9% | -$0.08 | — | ±50% | Low1 |
FY2027 | $748.4M $728.3M–$768.4M | ▼ -14.4% | -$0.33 | — | ±13% | Low2 |
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
HPK News
About
highpeak energy, inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the united states. its primary assets are located in howard county of the midland basin, texas. the company was founded in 2019 and is headquartered in fort worth, texas.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HPK◀ | $7.10 | +4.57% | $897M | — | -1926.8% | 219.6% | 1500 |
| $157.93 | +3.37% | $654.6B | 26.1 | -452.2% | 890.5% | 1500 | |
| $191.06 | +2.37% | $380.5B | 34.4 | -464.4% | 666.9% | 1491 | |
| $122.41 | +2.89% | $149.1B | 20.5 | +751.1% | 1360.5% | 1501 | |
| $77.72 | +0.04% | $95.1B | 33.5 | +1377.7% | 2190.8% | 1503 | |
| $55.38 | -0.66% | $82.8B | 25.1 | -159.8% | 938.1% | 1514 | |
| $33.63 | +0.69% | $74.8B | 22.6 | +1245.3% | 1802.9% | 1498 | |
| Sector avg | — | +1.89% | — | 27.0 | +53.0% | 1152.8% | 1501 |