Comparable store sales growth (positive/negative 2-5% swings materially impact earnings given fixed store cost base)
Direct-to-consumer channel penetration rate and profitability (higher margin business driving mix improvement)
Inventory management and promotional cadence (markdown rates directly impact gross margin by 200-400 bps)
New store productivity and fleet optimization decisions (closures of underperforming locations, real estate rationalization)
high - Women's specialty apparel is discretionary spending highly correlated with consumer confidence and disposable income. The 40+ affluent demographic shows more resilience than mass market but still defers purchases during economic uncertainty. Comparable sales typically swing 5-10% through economic cycles. Personal consumption expenditures and retail sales trends directly impact traffic and conversion rates.
Moderate sensitivity through multiple channels: (1) Consumer financing - higher rates reduce discretionary spending capacity for target demographic; (2) Debt servicing - company carries $140-150M debt (1.19 D/E ratio) with interest expense impacting profitability; (3) Valuation multiple compression - specialty retail multiples contract as risk-free rates rise, particularly impactful given low absolute valuation (0.2x P/S, 3.3x EV/EBITDA). Rising rates typically pressure both top-line demand and valuation.
Demographic concentration risk - heavy reliance on aging Baby Boomer cohort (40-65 age range) with uncertain brand appeal to younger Gen X/Millennial consumers as core customer base ages
Secular shift to off-price and online pure-plays - specialty retail losing share to TJX, Ross, Amazon, and digitally-native brands with lower cost structures
Physical retail footprint vulnerability - 260 stores face ongoing pressure from e-commerce shift, requiring continuous fleet optimization and potential impairment charges
value - Extremely low valuation multiples (0.2x P/S, 3.3x EV/EBITDA, 25.8% FCF yield) attract deep value investors seeking turnaround potential or liquidation value. High ROE (28.8%) and strong free cash flow generation appeal to value investors despite revenue stagnation. Recent 26.8% three-month return suggests momentum traders entering on technical signals. Not suitable for growth investors given 1% revenue growth. Dividend potential from strong FCF could attract income investors if capital allocation shifts from debt reduction.
Trend
-19.2% vs SMA 50 · +13.8% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2024 | $615.9M $611.2M–$621.5M | — | $3.40 | — | ±1% | Moderate3 |
FY2025 | $610.4M $609.4M–$612.0M | ▼ -0.9% | $3.35 | ▼ -1.6% | ±2% | High5 |
FY2026(current) | $593.8M $592.7M–$594.8M | ▼ -2.7% | $2.33 | ▼ -30.3% | ±3% | Moderate3 |
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
JILL News
About
j.jill is a premier omnichannel retailer and nationally recognized women’s apparel brand committed to delighting our customers with great wear-now product. j.jill operates an omnichannel platform that delivers a seamless experience to our customers through over 270 stores nationwide and a robust ecommerce experience. the j.jill brand represents an easy, relaxed, inspired style that reflects the confidence and comfort of a woman with a rich, full life. j.jill is headquartered outside boston.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JILL◀ | $12.02 | -1.31% | $136M | 6.5 | -234.2% | 467.5% | 1500 |
| $264.14 | -1.15% | $2.8T | 31.3 | +1237.8% | 1083.4% | 1521 | |
| $422.24 | -4.75% | $1.6T | 352.3 | -293.1% | 400.1% | 1507 | |
| $297.51 | -2.25% | $296.3B | 20.9 | +324.0% | 859.6% | 1477 | |
| $276.39 | +0.52% | $196.4B | 22.6 | +372.3% | 3185.0% | 1478 | |
| $147.43 | +0.05% | $163.2B | 30.2 | +711.9% | 910.0% | 1494 | |
| $218.42 | -2.32% | $122.3B | 18.3 | +312.2% | 771.2% | 1489 | |
| Sector avg | — | -1.60% | — | 68.9 | +347.3% | 1096.7% | 1495 |