Mortgage rate trajectory - 30-year fixed rates directly impact monthly payment affordability for target buyers earning $75K-$150K
Net order trends and cancellation rates - leading indicators of delivery volume 4-6 months forward
Gross margin performance - reflects land basis locked in 18-24 months prior, current lumber/labor costs, and incentive levels
Community count growth - expansion into new subdivisions drives absorption capacity and market share gains
high - Homebuilding is among the most cyclical industries, with demand tied to employment stability, wage growth, household formation rates, and consumer confidence. Entry-level buyers are particularly sensitive to economic uncertainty as they have limited savings buffers and higher debt-to-income ratios. The current -10% revenue decline reflects the 2024-2025 housing market slowdown driven by affordability constraints. Recovery depends on employment strength, real wage growth for middle-income households, and easing financial conditions.
Extremely high sensitivity to mortgage rates. A 100bp increase in 30-year mortgage rates reduces affordability by approximately 10-12% for target buyers, directly impacting order rates and requiring price/incentive adjustments. The company's entry-level focus amplifies rate sensitivity versus luxury builders. Conversely, rate declines of 50-100bp can trigger 20-30% order growth as monthly payments become accessible to larger buyer pools. Current Federal Reserve policy trajectory and 10-year Treasury yields are primary valuation drivers.
Affordability crisis in core markets - median home prices in California, Arizona, and Nevada have outpaced wage growth by 30-40% over the past decade, structurally limiting the entry-level buyer pool without significant price corrections or income growth
Labor and material cost inflation - skilled trade shortages (framers, electricians, plumbers) and lumber price volatility create margin pressure that cannot always be passed through to price-sensitive entry-level buyers
Climate and insurance risks - increasing wildfire exposure in California and extreme weather events in Texas/Florida are raising insurance costs and potentially limiting buyer demand in high-risk zones
value/cyclical - The stock trades at 0.7x P/S and 1.1x P/B, attracting deep value investors betting on housing cycle recovery and mean reversion in margins/returns. Cyclical traders focus on inflection points in mortgage rates and order trends. The 6.9% FCF yield appeals to value investors seeking cash generation at trough multiples. Recent 14.2% three-month return suggests early-cycle momentum as rates stabilized. Not suitable for growth or income investors given negative revenue growth and no dividend.
Trend
-15.2% vs SMA 50 · -24.3% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2023 | $6.5B $6.2B–$6.9B | — | $7.59 | — | ±7% | Moderate3 |
FY2024 | $6.9B $6.9B–$6.9B | ▲ +6.4% | $8.41 | ▲ +10.9% | ±1% | High9 |
FY2025 | $6.2B $6.2B–$6.2B | ▼ -10.3% | $6.40 | ▼ -24.0% | ±1% | High7 |
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
KBH News
About
kb home is one of the largest and most recognized homebuilders in the united states and an industry leader in sustainability, building innovative and highly energy- and water-efficient new homes. founded in 1957 and the first nyse-listed homebuilder (ticker symbol: kbh), the company has built nearly 600,000 homes for families from coast to coast. distinguished by its personalized homebuilding approach, kb home lets each buyer choose their lot location, floor plan, décor choices, design features and other special touches that matter most to them. to learn more about kb home, call 888-kb-homes, visit www.kbhome.com or connect on facebook.com/kbhome or twitter.com/kbhome.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KBH◀ | $45.07 | -3.88% | $2.8B | 8.0 | -1001.2% | 687.6% | 1500 |
| $264.14 | -1.15% | $2.8T | 31.3 | +1237.8% | 1083.4% | 1521 | |
| $422.24 | -4.75% | $1.6T | 352.3 | -293.1% | 400.1% | 1507 | |
| $297.51 | -2.25% | $296.3B | 20.9 | +324.0% | 859.6% | 1477 | |
| $276.39 | +0.52% | $196.4B | 22.6 | +372.3% | 3185.0% | 1478 | |
| $147.43 | +0.05% | $163.2B | 30.2 | +711.9% | 910.0% | 1494 | |
| $218.42 | -2.32% | $122.3B | 18.3 | +312.2% | 771.2% | 1489 | |
| Sector avg | — | -1.97% | — | 69.1 | +237.7% | 1128.1% | 1495 |