Klabin (KLBAY)

What Moves the Stock

1. 01Global bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp (BEKP) benchmark pricing - spot prices directly impact 25-30% of revenue with 60-90 day lag
2. 02Brazilian real exchange rate (BRL/USD) - strengthening real reduces export competitiveness but lowers USD-denominated debt burden (Debt/Equity 4.88x suggests significant FX exposure)
3. 03Chinese tissue and printing paper demand - China represents 30-40% of global pulp imports and drives pricing cycles
4. 04Brazilian packaging demand tied to agricultural exports (soybeans, coffee, proteins) and domestic consumption
5. 05Pulp capacity additions in Latin America and Asia - new supply from competitors (CMPC, Suzano, APP) pressures pricing
6. 06Packaging papers (kraftliner, containerboard, corrugated boxes) - estimated 55-60% of revenue, serving Brazilian consumer goods and agricultural export sectors
7. 07Market pulp (bleached eucalyptus) - estimated 25-30% of revenue, exported primarily to China, Europe, and North America
8. 08Industrial papers and specialty products - estimated 10-15% of revenue, including sack kraft and industrial bags

KLBAY Chart

My Notes

• value - The 15.2% FCF yield, 6.9x P/S (elevated for cyclical commodity producer)…
• Rising US rates strengthen USD versus BRL, improving export competitiveness and pulp pricing in local currency terms…
• Watch on earnings: BEKP pulp spot price (Europe and China benchmarks) - directly impacts 25-30% of revenue, BRL/USD exchange rate - affects export competitiveness and debt servicing costs, China industrial production and tissue paper consumption - drives 30-40% of global pulp demand.