MBUU
Earnings in 2 days · May 7, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Bearish Setup2
Price
1
Move-6.81%Selling pressure
Volume
1
Volume0.6× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 45Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
25.71
Open
25.63
Day Range23.84 – 25.63
23.84
25.63
52W Range23.84 – 39.65
23.84
39.65
1% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
319.3K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
32.4x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.11
Market-like
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
NEUTRAL
rev +12% · 16% gross margin
Valuation
EXPENSIVE
P/E 32x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 1.6 · FCF $1.74/sh
Lean Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$445.72M
Revenue TTM$819.06M
Net Income TTM$14.40M
Free Cash Flow$33.32M
Gross Margin15.6%
Net Margin1.8%
Operating Margin2.4%
Return on Equity2.8%
Return on Assets2.0%
Debt / Equity0.06
Current Ratio1.56
EPS TTM$0.75
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Dealer inventory levels and weeks-on-hand metrics - destocking cycles compress wholesale shipments independent of retail demand

Retail unit sales trends and ASP trajectory - mix shift between entry-level Axis ($80K-$120K) versus premium Malibu ($150K-$200K) drives revenue per unit

Interest rate environment and marine lending availability - typical buyers finance 70-80% of purchase over 10-15 years, monthly payment sensitivity is acute

New model introductions and technology features - proprietary surf systems, touchscreen integration, and hull innovations drive premiumization

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Recreational boats are discretionary purchases by affluent consumers (median household income $150K-$250K+ for performance sport boats). Demand correlates strongly with consumer confidence, wealth effects from equity/real estate markets, and discretionary spending capacity. The 2008-2009 recession saw industry unit volumes decline 60-70%, and COVID demand surge created 2021-2022 backlog that has since normalized into inventory correction. Current negative revenue growth reflects post-pandemic demand normalization and interest rate headwinds.

Interest Rates

Extremely high sensitivity. With 70-80% of buyers financing purchases over 10-15 years, monthly payment affordability is critical. A 300 bps rate increase (e.g., 4% to 7% marine loan rates) increases monthly payment by approximately 25-30% on a $150K boat, materially impacting buyer qualification and demand. Current elevated rate environment (Fed Funds near 4.5% in early 2026) has compressed demand since 2022. Additionally, higher rates pressure valuation multiples for cyclical consumer discretionary stocks.

Key Risks

Demographic shifts and participation rates in watersports - wakeboarding/water skiing participation has been flat to declining among younger demographics, offset partially by wakesurfing growth

Climate and water access constraints - drought conditions in key markets (Western US, Texas) limit usable boating days and lake access, multi-year droughts impact replacement cycles

Regulatory emissions and environmental standards - potential future EPA emissions requirements for marine engines could increase costs, though less stringent than automotive standards currently

Investor Profile

value - Current 0.7x Price/Sales and 1.2x Price/Book ratios reflect deep cyclical trough valuation. Investors are betting on margin recovery as volumes normalize and operating leverage returns. The 127% YoY net income growth (off depressed base) and 4.7% FCF yield attract value investors anticipating mean reversion. Recent 27.5% three-month return suggests early-stage positioning ahead of potential rate cuts and demand recovery. Not a growth or dividend story given negative revenue growth and minimal payout.

Watch on Earnings
Federal Funds Rate and marine loan interest rates - primary demand driver given financing sensitivityConsumer Sentiment Index (University of Michigan) - leading indicator for discretionary big-ticket purchasesHigh-net-worth household equity portfolio values - wealth effect drives upgrade and replacement cyclesGasoline prices - boating operating costs impact usage frequency and purchase decisions
Health Radar
2 strong1 watch3 concern
48/100
Liquidity
1.56Watch
Leverage
0.06Strong
Coverage
12.0xStrong
ROE
2.8%Concern
ROIC
2.6%Concern
Cash
$37MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE15 analysts
BUY
+35.6%upside to target
L $30.00
Med $32.50consensus
H $36.00
Buy
853%
Hold
747%
8 Buy (53%)7 Hold (47%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
4 of 5 signals bullish
8/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 45 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowAccumulation — institutional buying
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.56 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 6, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 3, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentSep 1, 2026
In 119 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 1.8%

-22.8% vs SMA 50 · -24.2% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI44.7
Momentum fading
MACD-0.01
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$39.65+65.5%
EMA 200
$31.35+30.8%
EMA 50
$31.24+30.4%
Current
$23.96
52W Low
$23.84-0.5%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$23.841th %ile$39.65
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Moderate Squeeze Setup

Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:6
Dist days:1
Edge:+5 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)139K
Recent Vol (5D)
144K+3%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 6 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$1.3B
$1.3B$1.3B
$8.52
±3%
Moderate4
FY2024
$827.8M
$823.9M$835.5M
-38.4%$2.02-76.3%
±2%
High6
FY2025
$797.1M
$791.9M$802.9M
-3.7%$1.57-22.2%
±6%
High6
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryMBUU
Last 8Q
+54.9%avg beat
Beat 6 of 8 quartersMissed 2 Estimates rising
+37%
Q2'24
-26%
Q3'24
+198%
Q4'24
+48%
Q1'25
+7%
Q2'25
-9%
Q3'25
+150%
Q4'25
+33%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Raymond JamesOutperform → Market Perform
Apr 15
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
2 Buys/3 SellsNet Selling
Lanigan Mark W.Dir
$669K
May 6
BUY
Hooks Michael K.Dir
$535K
Feb 22
BUY
Black David ScottInterim CFO
$27K
Nov 8
SELL
Anderson Ritchie L.COO
$511K
Nov 7
SELL
Anderson Ritchie L.COO
$79K
Nov 7
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
PZENA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC
1.7M
2
COOKE & BIELER LP
1.5M
3
FORT WASHINGTON INVESTMENT ADVISORS INC /OH/
695K
4
EXCHANGE TRADED CONCEPTS, LLC
52K
5
Nuveen, LLC
41K
6
ENVESTNET ASSET MANAGEMENT INC
30K
7
Unison Advisors LLC
9K
8
SG Americas Securities, LLC
7K
News & Activity

MBUU News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

Based in Loudon, Tennessee, Malibu Boats, Inc. (MBUU) is a leading designer, manufacturer and marketer of a diverse range of recreational powerboats, including performance sport, sterndrive and outboard boats. Malibu Boats, Inc. is the market leader in the performance sport boat category through its Malibu and Axis boat brands, the leader in the 20' - 40' segment of the sterndrive boat category through its Cobalt brand, and in a leading position in the saltwater fishing boat market with its Pursuit and Cobia offshore boats and Pathfinder, Maverick, and Hewes flats and bay boat brands. A pre-eminent innovator in the powerboat industry, Malibu Boats, Inc. designs products that appeal to an expanding range of recreational boaters, fisherman and water sports enthusiasts whose passion for boating is a key component of their active lifestyles.

Industry
Boat Building
Rachael GreenSenior Vice President of Malibu & Axis
Christopher GratzSenior Vice President of Saltwater
Dave ClukaVice President of Sales & Marketing
PeersConsumer Cyclical(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
MBUU
$23.96+0.00%$446M1500
$272.05+1.41%$2.9T32.2+1237.8%1083.4%1515
$392.51+0.45%$1.5T327.5-293.1%400.1%1490
$312.42-3.54%$311.2B21.9+324.0%859.6%1485
$284.10-0.89%$201.9B23.7+372.3%3185.0%1488
$154.64-1.40%$171.7B31.7+711.9%910.0%1510
$165.58-2.39%$128.3B21.3+1338.7%2007.7%1489
Sector avg-0.91%76.4+615.3%1407.6%1497