MCW
Next earnings: Jul 29, 2026 · After close
Signal
Leaning Bullish1
Price
1
Move+0.00%Quiet session
Volume
1
Volume0.6× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 60Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
7.05
Open
7.05
Day Range7.04 – 7.06
7.04
7.06
52W Range4.61 – 7.98
4.61
7.98
72% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
1.6M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
21.4x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.17
Market-like
Performance
1D
5D
-1.54%
1M
+1.00%
3M
+14.82%
6M
+36.10%
YTD
+26.80%
1Y
-6.37%
Best: 6M (+36.10%)Worst: 1Y (-6.37%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +5% YoY · 59% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E 21x vs ~20x sector
Health
MODERATE
CR 0.5 (low) · FCF $0.09/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$2.32B
Revenue TTM$1.07B
Net Income TTM$110.26M
Free Cash Flow$30.81M
Gross Margin58.7%
Net Margin10.3%
Operating Margin20.3%
Return on Equity9.8%
Return on Assets3.4%
Debt / Equity0.82
Current Ratio0.49
EPS TTM$0.34
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Same-store sales growth and membership retention rates - critical for demonstrating unit economics at mature locations

New store openings and greenfield development pipeline - company targets 15-20 net new locations annually, each requiring 18-24 months to reach maturity

Membership conversion rates and average revenue per member (ARPM) - ability to convert retail customers to subscriptions and implement price increases

Unit-level EBITDA margins at mature stores - demonstrates operational efficiency and pricing power in local markets

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

moderate-to-high - Car wash demand correlates with consumer discretionary spending, vehicle miles traveled, and employment levels. During recessions, consumers reduce wash frequency and cancel subscriptions to preserve cash. However, the subscription model provides some revenue stability versus pure retail. Weather patterns significantly impact demand, with winter road salt and spring pollen driving seasonal peaks. The business benefits from growing vehicle parc (280+ million registered vehicles in US) and secular shift from at-home washing to professional services.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates negatively impact the business through multiple channels: (1) Higher borrowing costs on $850 million debt balance increase interest expense by approximately $8.5 million per 100bps rate increase; (2) Elevated rates compress valuation multiples for high-growth, capital-intensive businesses; (3) Reduced consumer discretionary spending as mortgage and auto loan payments increase; (4) Higher cost of capital makes new store development less attractive, with required returns increasing from 25-30% IRR to 30-35% IRR hurdles. The company's growth-through-acquisition strategy also becomes more expensive as private market transaction multiples remain elevated while public market valuations compress.

Key Risks

Electric vehicle adoption reducing wash frequency - EVs driven 20-30% fewer miles annually than ICE vehicles and generate less road grime, potentially reducing wash demand per vehicle by 15-25% as EV penetration reaches 30-40% of fleet by 2035

Autonomous vehicle deployment enabling centralized fleet washing - robotaxi fleets from Waymo, Cruise, Tesla could wash vehicles at dedicated facilities rather than retail locations, removing 5-10% of addressable market if autonomous vehicles reach 10-15% of miles traveled

Water scarcity and environmental regulations - California and Southwest markets face increasing water restrictions, with potential mandates for water recycling systems adding $200,000-$400,000 per location retrofit costs; drought conditions in 30% of operating markets create regulatory risk

Investor Profile

growth - Investors attracted to secular growth story of car wash industry consolidation, recurring revenue subscription model with 70%+ gross margins, and 15-20% annual unit growth potential. The stock appeals to growth-at-reasonable-price (GARP) investors given 1.9x P/S and 10.5x EV/EBITDA multiples below high-growth SaaS comparables. However, negative free cash flow and execution risk on new store openings limit appeal to value investors. Recent 22% three-month rally suggests momentum investors re-engaging after 21% one-year decline created attractive entry point.

Watch on Earnings
US regular gasoline retail prices (GASPRICE) - higher fuel costs reduce discretionary driving and car wash frequencyConsumer sentiment index (UMCSENT) - leading indicator for discretionary service spending and membership cancellationsUnemployment rate (UNRATE) - job losses drive immediate membership churn as consumers cut non-essential subscriptionsVehicle miles traveled (VMT) - not in FRED but proxy through industrial production and retail sales; more driving increases wash demand
Health Radar
1 strong2 watch3 concern
30/100
Liquidity
0.49Concern
Leverage
0.82Strong
Coverage
3.9xWatch
ROE
9.8%Watch
ROIC
5.2%Concern
Cash
$28MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE16 analysts
HOLD
-0.7%downside to target
L $7.00
Med $7.00consensus
H $7.50
Buy
531%
Hold
1063%
Sell
16%
5 Buy (31%)10 Hold (63%)1 Sell (6%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
8/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 60 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowAccumulation — institutional buying
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.49 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 8, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 5, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 20, 2026
In 105 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 17.7%

+0.6% vs SMA 50 · +18.4% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI60.3
Positive momentum, not extended
MACD+0.03
Above zero — bullish momentum · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$7.98+13.2%
Current
$7.05
EMA 50
$6.88-2.4%
EMA 200
$6.33-10.2%
52W Low
$4.61-34.6%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$4.6172th %ile$7.98
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Moderate Squeeze Setup

Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:6
Dist days:3
Edge:+3 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)1.5M
Recent Vol (5D)
1.3M-16%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 11 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↑ Revised UpRevenue↑ Revised Up

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$940.3M
$923.2M$951.4M
$0.24
±2%
High9
FY2024
$991.8M
$988.1M$995.1M
+5.5%$0.35+45.8%
±3%
High11
FY2025
$1.1B
$1.0B$1.1B
+6.1%$0.43+22.2%
±2%
High11
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryMCW
Last 8Q
+12.8%avg beat
Beat 7 of 8 quartersMissed 1 Estimates rising
+22%
Q3'24
+29%
Q4'24
+29%
Q1'25
+10%
Q2'25
-15%
Q3'25
+10%
Q4'25
+10%
Q1'26
+8%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
Neutral — mixed activity
90d04
Raymond JamesOutperform → Market Perform
Feb 20
DOWNGRADE
BMO CapitalOutperform → Market Perform
Feb 19
DOWNGRADE
GuggenheimNeutral
Feb 18
DOWNGRADE
William BlairMarket Perform
Feb 18
DOWNGRADE
StephensOverweight
Oct 27
UPGRADE
Piper SandlerOverweight
Aug 28
UPGRADE
Goldman SachsNeutral
Jun 27
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Lai John Lo-minnCEO
$156K
Mar 2
SELL
Gold Jedidiah MarcCFO
$34K
Mar 2
SELL
Matheny Joseph DuaneChief Innovati…
$16K
Mar 2
SELL
Gold Jedidiah MarcCFO
$39K
Jun 26
SELL
Lai John Lo-minnCEO
$208K
Jun 26
SELL
Matheny Joseph DuaneChief Innovati…
$13K
Jun 26
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
UBS Group AG
1.0M
2
Bank of New York Mellon Corp
715K
3
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INC
480K
4
CREDIT INDUSTRIEL ET COMMERCIAL
402K
5
CIBRA Capital Ltd
337K
6
Nuveen, LLC
190K
7
WEALTH ENHANCEMENT ADVISORY SERVICES, LLC
69K
8
State of Alaska, Department of Revenue
66K
News & Activity

MCW News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

Headquartered in Tucson, Arizona, Mister Car Wash operates over 340 car washes nationwide. The Mister Car Wash brand is anchored in quality, friendliness and a commitment to creating memorable customer experiences. Mister Car Wash’s people are what make it successful and allow it to achieve these high standards. Mister Car Wash continues to focus on recruiting and retaining top talent, developing best-in-class training programs and investing in employee benefits to cultivate a positive company culture.

Industry
Offices of Lawyers
CEO
John Lai
Jedidiah Marc GoldCFO, Treasurer
Edward PlankVice President of Investor Relations
John LaiChairperson, President & Chief Executive Officer
PeersConsumer Cyclical(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
MCW
$7.05+0.00%$2.3B21.0+573.1%980.1%1500
$274.99+0.53%$2.9T32.5+1237.8%1083.4%1517
$398.73+2.40%$1.5T332.7-293.1%400.1%1491
$323.05+2.42%$314.2B22.7+324.0%859.6%1486
$284.10-0.38%$202.7B23.7+372.3%3185.0%1488
$155.45+0.32%$171.5B31.8+711.9%910.0%1512
$168.32+0.41%$129.9B21.6+1338.7%2007.7%1489
Sector avg+0.81%69.4+609.2%1346.6%1498