Tonnage per day trends - leading indicator of industrial activity and market share gains/losses
Revenue per hundredweight (yield) - reflects pricing power and mix shift toward higher-margin freight
Operating ratio (OR) - every 100bps improvement drives ~15-20% earnings upside given high incrementals
LTL market share dynamics - ODFL targeting 13-15% share vs current 11-12%, with Yellow's 2023 bankruptcy creating 3-4% market share opportunity
high - LTL tonnage correlates 0.7-0.8 with industrial production and manufacturing PMI. ODFL's freight mix is 60% industrial/manufacturing, 25% retail/consumer, 15% other. During 2008-2009 recession, LTL tonnage fell 20-25%; in 2020 COVID shock, down 15-20% before V-recovery. Current freight recession (2023-2024) shows tonnage down 4-8% YoY, pressuring revenue despite pricing discipline. GDP growth above 2.5% typically drives tonnage acceleration; sub-1% GDP creates tonnage contraction.
Low direct sensitivity - zero debt means no interest expense impact. Indirect sensitivity through customer demand: rising rates slow housing (construction materials shipments), manufacturing capex (machinery/equipment freight), and consumer durables (appliances, furniture). Higher rates also compress valuation multiples for high-quality industrials trading at 20-25x P/E. However, ODFL's fortress balance sheet and ability to self-fund $800M annual capex provides competitive advantage when capital-constrained peers cut investments.
Autonomous trucking technology - potential 10-15 year horizon threat to driver-based model, though LTL's complex pickup/delivery and freight handling requirements create longer runway than truckload
E-commerce shift toward parcel and final-mile delivery reducing traditional LTL shipment sizes and weights, pressuring yield and density economics
Regulatory risk from hours-of-service rules, emissions standards (California ACT requiring zero-emission trucks), and potential driver reclassification increasing labor costs 15-25%
growth-at-reasonable-price (GARP) and quality growth investors - ODFL combines 8-12% long-term revenue CAGR, 200-300bps annual OR improvement potential, 24% ROE, and zero debt. Premium 7.4x P/S and 23x EV/EBITDA multiples reflect best-in-class execution, but cyclical earnings volatility (-13.7% net income in current downcycle) creates entry points. Institutional ownership 85%+, with growth and quality-focused funds (T. Rowe Price, Fidelity, Vanguard) as anchor holders.
Trend
-5.0% vs SMA 50 · +14.6% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2024 | $5.8B $5.8B–$5.8B | — | $5.42 | — | ±0% | High15 |
FY2025 | $5.5B $5.5B–$5.5B | ▼ -5.4% | $4.81 | ▼ -11.3% | ±1% | High16 |
FY2026(current) | $5.7B $5.6B–$5.9B | ▲ +4.3% | $5.35 | ▲ +11.2% | ±5% | High17 |
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
New York, New York--(Newsfile Corp. - May 12, 2026) - WHY: Rosen Law Firm, a global investor rights…
old dominion freight line, inc. (nasdaq: odfl) is a leading, less-than-truckload (“ltl”), union-free company providing premium service to all its customers. od offers regional, inter-regional and national ltl service. in addition to its core ltl services, the company offers its customers a broad range of logistics services including ground and air expedited transportation, supply chain consulting, transportation management, truckload brokerage, container delivery and warehousing. in addition, old dominion offers a consumer product for household moving: od household services. through strategic partnerships, the company also offers international freight forwarding services throughout the world. old dominion’s claims ratio and on-time record are among the best in the industry. for 80 years, old dominion has been helping the world keep promises. for career opportunities, visit http://www.odfl.com/careers/.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ODFL◀ | $191.12 | +0.14% | $40.6B | 40.3 | -547.6% | 1862.5% | 1510 |
| $912.14 | +0.20% | $426.9B | 45.6 | +429.0% | 1312.8% | 1524 | |
| $297.45 | +1.22% | $314.3B | 36.0 | +1848.2% | 1898.2% | 1492 | |
| $178.89 | +1.43% | $240.5B | 33.2 | +974.1% | 759.8% | 1488 | |
| $236.87 | +2.74% | $187.8B | 86.0 | +3449.4% | 249.7% | 1509 | |
| $401.53 | +4.36% | $162.7B | 40.8 | +1033.0% | 1489.7% | 1501 | |
| $589.19 | +2.42% | $159.0B | 33.1 | -1158.6% | 1125.5% | 1506 | |
| Sector avg | — | +1.79% | — | 45.0 | +861.1% | 1242.6% | 1504 |