TPH
Next earnings: Jul 23, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Leaning Bearish1!
Price
1
Move-0.06%Quiet session
Volume
1
Volume0.5× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 83Overbought
PRICE
Prev Close
46.89
Open
46.89
Day Range46.86 – 46.90
46.86
46.90
52W Range28.72 – 46.99
28.72
46.99
99% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
3.1M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
22.3x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.27
Market-like
Performance
1D
-0.06%
5D
-0.09%
1M
+0.15%
3M
+32.56%
6M
+48.76%
YTD
+48.90%
1Y
+49.00%
Best: 1Y (+49.00%)Worst: 5D (-0.09%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BEARISH
revenue -24% YoY
Valuation
FAIR
P/E 22x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 29.8 · FCF $1.33/sh
Lean Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$3.99B
Revenue TTM$3.25B
Net Income TTM$183.83M
Free Cash Flow$113.13M
Gross Margin20.6%
Net Margin5.7%
Operating Margin7.8%
Return on Equity5.6%
Return on Assets3.7%
Debt / Equity0.38
Current Ratio29.84
EPS TTM$2.17
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Net new home orders and cancellation rates - leading indicators of revenue 6-9 months forward

Gross margin trajectory driven by pricing power, construction cost inflation (lumber, labor), and product mix

Community count growth and land acquisition activity in high-barrier Western markets

Mortgage rate movements affecting buyer affordability and traffic conversion rates

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Homebuilding is among the most cyclical industries, highly sensitive to employment conditions, wage growth, and consumer confidence. First-time buyers (significant portion of TPH's customer base) are particularly sensitive to job security and income stability. Move-up buyers depend on existing home equity and the ability to sell current homes. Recessions typically cause 30-50% declines in housing starts and builder revenues.

Interest Rates

Mortgage rates are the single most important variable affecting affordability and buyer demand. A 100bp increase in 30-year mortgage rates reduces purchasing power by approximately 10-12%, directly impacting traffic, conversion rates, and pricing power. Rising rates also increase TPH's cost of capital for land acquisition and development financing. However, the company benefits from fixed-rate construction financing locked in advance. The current 0.38 debt/equity ratio provides flexibility but rising rates compress valuation multiples for homebuilders.

Key Risks

Demographic headwinds as millennial household formation peaks and Gen Z cohort is smaller; long-term demand growth may decelerate post-2030

Climate risk in Western markets including wildfire exposure in California footprint and water scarcity concerns affecting long-term development viability

Zoning reform and regulatory changes that could either increase supply (reducing pricing power) or further constrain development (increasing costs)

Investor Profile

value - The 1.1x price/sales, 1.2x price/book, and 16.9% FCF yield attract value investors seeking cyclical recovery plays. The 43.4% one-year return and 50.9% three-month return indicate momentum investors have recently entered. Growth investors are attracted by the 20.9% revenue growth and 39.9% EPS growth, though this is cyclical expansion rather than secular growth. The stock appeals to investors with conviction on housing market stabilization and mortgage rate normalization.

Watch on Earnings
30-year fixed mortgage rate (MORTGAGE30US) - primary affordability driverHousing starts and building permits (HOUST, PERMIT) - industry demand indicatorsS&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (CSUSHPINSA) - pricing environment and existing home competitionLumber futures (LBUSD) - key construction cost input affecting gross margins
Health Radar
3 strong3 concern
47/100
Liquidity
29.84Strong
Leverage
0.38Strong
Coverage
0.0xConcern
ROE
5.6%Concern
ROIC
3.8%Concern
Cash
$983MStrong
ANALYST COVERAGE18 analysts
HOLD
+0.3%upside to target
Buy
844%
Hold
1056%
8 Buy (44%)10 Hold (56%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
1 of 5 signals bullish
5/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 83 — Overbought, caution
~
Volume
Volume FlowNeutral
~
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 29.84 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings Report · After CloseMay 5, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 2, 2026
In 90 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 13.3%

+24.4% vs SMA 50 · +41.1% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI83.3
Overbought — pullback risk
MACD+2.83
Above zero — bullish momentum · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$46.99+0.3%
Current
$46.86
EMA 50
$40.01-14.6%
EMA 200
$30.65-34.6%
52W Low
$28.72-38.7%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week high
$28.7299th %ile$46.99
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
No Clear Setup

Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:7
Dist days:5
Edge:+2 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)990K
Recent Vol (5D)
1.2M+17%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 5 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$4.2B
$4.1B$4.3B
$4.44
±3%
Moderate3
FY2024
$4.4B
$4.4B$4.5B
+5.7%$4.74+6.9%
±1%
High5
FY2025
$3.4B
$3.4B$3.5B
-23.2%$2.80-41.0%
±1%
Moderate3
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryTPH
Last 8Q
+8.9%avg beat
Beat 7 of 8 quartersMissed 1 Estimates falling
+15%
Q3'24
+10%
Q4'24
+5%
Q1'25
+56%
Q2'25
+17%
Q3'25
+39%
Q4'25
+3%
Q1'26
-73%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
Neutral — mixed activity
90d02
OppenheimerOutperform → Perform
Feb 13
DOWNGRADE
Seaport GlobalNeutral
Feb 13
DOWNGRADE
Wolfe ResearchOutperform → Peer Perform
Jul 27
DOWNGRADE
WedbushNeutral → Outperform
Apr 28
UPGRADE
ZelmanNeutral
Sep 17
UPGRADE
RBC CapitalSector Perform → Outperform
Mar 13
UPGRADE
OppenheimerOutperform
Sep 7
UPGRADE
Wolfe ResearchOutperform
Aug 7
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Gilbert Steven JDir
$2.3M
Feb 19
SELL
Bauer Douglas F.CEO
$3.6M
Apr 28
SELL
Mitchell Thomas J.President and …
$3.0M
Dec 16
SELL
Lee David ChGeneral Counse…
$221K
Sep 13
SELL
Keeler Glenn J.CFO and CAO
$1.1M
Jul 29
SELL
Bauer Douglas F.CEO
$2.3M
May 9
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Nuveen, LLC
270K
2
Phocas Financial Corp.
165K
3
ALPINE ASSOCIATES MANAGEMENT INC.
142K
4
SG Americas Securities, LLC
108K
5
COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA PUBLIC SCHOOL EMPLS RETRMT SYS
81K
6
Moran Wealth Management, LLC
60K
7
THRIVENT FINANCIAL FOR LUTHERANS
56K
8
State of Alaska, Department of Revenue
47K
News & Activity

TPH News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

One of the largest homebuilders in the U.S., Tri Pointe Homes® is a publicly traded company and a recognized leader in customer experience, innovative design, and environmentally responsible business practices. The company builds premium homes and communities in 10 states, with deep ties to the communities it serves-some for as long as a century. Tri Pointe Homes combines the financial resources, technology platforms and proven leadership of a national organization with the regional insights, longstanding community connections and agility of empowered local teams. Tri Pointe has won multiple Builder of the Year awards, most recently in 2019, and made Fortune magazine's 2017 100 Fastest-Growing Companies list. The company was also named one of the Best Places to Work by the Orange County Business Journal for four consecutive years.

Industry
New Housing For-Sale Builders
Kenneth C. KrivanecPresident of Quadrant Homes
Thomas J. MitchellPresident & Chief Operating Officer
Jeffrey D. FrankelPresident of TRI Pointe Homes Northern California
PeersConsumer Cyclical(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
TPH
$46.86-0.06%$4.0B21.6-2275.1%694.1%1500
$268.42+1.27%$2.9T31.8+1237.8%1083.4%1515
$390.82+2.41%$1.5T326.1-293.1%400.1%1490
$323.88-1.50%$322.6B22.7+324.0%859.6%1485
$286.64-2.37%$203.8B23.9+372.3%3185.0%1488
$156.83+0.05%$174.2B32.1+711.9%910.0%1510
$169.63+0.75%$131.4B21.8+1338.7%2007.7%1489
Sector avg+0.08%68.6+202.4%1305.7%1497