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Thesis: Eregli Demir ve Çelik Fabrikalari T.A.S.: the story is balanced — Turkish lira exchange rate volatility - raw materials priced in USD while ~70% of sales are domestic in lira…
★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $273.1B — +20.5% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
1Turkish lira exchange rate volatility - raw materials priced in USD while ~70% of sales are domestic in lira, creating margin compression during lira weakness
2Chinese steel export volumes and pricing - China dumping excess capacity into global markets pressures Turkish domestic prices
3Turkish construction sector activity - residential and infrastructure spending drives rebar and structural steel demand from competitors, indirectly affecting flat steel pricing
4Iron ore (Qingdao port) and Australian coking coal spot prices - direct input cost drivers with 2-3 month lag to P&L impact
5European automotive production schedules - Turkish auto sector exports 80% of production to EU, so European demand cycles affect domestic steel orders
6Hot-rolled coil (HRC) and cold-rolled coil (CRC) for automotive and appliance manufacturers (~60-65% of revenue estimate)
7Galvanized and coated steel products for construction and infrastructure (~25-30% estimate)
8Specialty steel products and by-products including slag and scrap (~5-10% estimate)
value - Trading at 0.7x book value and 1.0x sales suggests deep value opportunity…
Turkish Central Bank policy rates affect construction financing and automotive credit availability…
Watch on earnings: Iron ore 62% Fe Qingdao port spot price (currently ~$100-110/ton range), Premium hard coking coal Australia FOB price (key input cost), Turkish lira USD exchange rate (USDTRY) - every 10% depreciation impacts margins materially.
One Sentence Summary:
Eregli Demir ve Çelik Fabrikalari T.A.S.: the story is balanced — turkish lira exchange rate volatility - raw materials priced in usd while ~70% of sales are domestic in lira.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.