ThesisEregli Demir ve Çelik Fabrikalari T.A.S.: the story is balanced — Turkish lira exchange rate volatility - raw materials priced in USD while ~70% of sales are domestic in lira…
★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $278.9B — +23.0% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
01Turkish lira exchange rate volatility - raw materials priced in USD while ~70% of sales are domestic in lira, creating margin compression during lira weakness
02Chinese steel export volumes and pricing - China dumping excess capacity into global markets pressures Turkish domestic prices
03Turkish construction sector activity - residential and infrastructure spending drives rebar and structural steel demand from competitors, indirectly affecting flat steel pricing
04Iron ore (Qingdao port) and Australian coking coal spot prices - direct input cost drivers with 2-3 month lag to P&L impact
05European automotive production schedules - Turkish auto sector exports 80% of production to EU, so European demand cycles affect domestic steel orders
06Hot-rolled coil (HRC) and cold-rolled coil (CRC) for automotive and appliance manufacturers (~60-65% of revenue estimate)
07Galvanized and coated steel products for construction and infrastructure (~25-30% estimate)
08Specialty steel products and by-products including slag and scrap (~5-10% estimate)
value - Trading at 0.7x book value and 1.0x sales suggests deep value opportunity…
Turkish Central Bank policy rates affect construction financing and automotive credit availability…
Watch on earnings: Iron ore 62% Fe Qingdao port spot price (currently ~$100-110/ton range), Premium hard coking coal Australia FOB price (key input cost), Turkish lira USD exchange rate (USDTRY) - every 10% depreciation impacts margins materially.
One Sentence Summary:
Eregli Demir ve Çelik Fabrikalari T.A.S.: the story is balanced — turkish lira exchange rate volatility - raw materials priced in usd while ~70% of sales are domestic in lira.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.
