EYE
Next earnings: Aug 5, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Leaning Bullish21
Price
1
Move-1.52%Negative session
Volume
1
Volume2.1× avgHeavy volume
Technical
1
RSIRSI 19Oversold — bounce setup
PRICE
Prev Close
17.72
Open
18.28
Day Range17.13 – 18.35
17.13
18.35
52W Range14.75 – 30.02
14.75
30.02
18% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
1.7M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
30.6x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.21
Market-like
Performance
1D
-1.52%
5D
-23.57%
1M
-30.67%
3M
-38.16%
6M
-26.37%
YTD
-32.42%
1Y
-6.23%
Worst: 3M (-38.16%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +9% YoY · 54% gross margin
Valuation
EXPENSIVE
P/E 31x vs ~20x sector
Health
MODERATE
CR 0.6 (low) · FCF $1.33/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$1.40B
Revenue TTM$2.02B
Net Income TTM$46.59M
Free Cash Flow$105.58M
Gross Margin54.2%
Net Margin2.3%
Operating Margin3.9%
Return on Equity5.4%
Return on Assets2.3%
Debt / Equity0.77
Current Ratio0.62
EPS TTM$0.58
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Comparable store sales growth - traffic trends and average transaction value at existing locations

Store-level productivity metrics - revenue per store and four-wall EBITDA margins indicating operational turnaround progress

New store opening pace and payback periods - unit economics for expansion strategy

Competitive dynamics with Warby Parker online/retail hybrid model and traditional optical chains

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Eyeglasses are a discretionary purchase for many consumers despite medical necessity, as customers can delay replacement or trade down to basic frames during economic stress. The value positioning targets middle-income households most sensitive to employment and wage trends. Consumer confidence and discretionary spending directly impact store traffic and attachment rates for premium lens upgrades. However, the essential nature of vision correction provides some demand stability compared to pure discretionary retail.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates negatively impact National Vision through multiple channels: higher borrowing costs on the company's debt (0.81 D/E ratio), pressure on consumer discretionary budgets reducing willingness to upgrade to premium products, and valuation multiple compression for unprofitable growth retailers. The current negative operating margin makes the business more vulnerable to financing cost increases. Lower rates would ease debt service and support consumer spending on optical products.

Key Risks

Online optical retailers (Warby Parker, Zenni Optical) offering lower prices and home try-on programs, reducing need for physical store visits and pressuring traffic to brick-and-mortar locations

Vertical integration by vision insurance providers (VSP operating retail locations) and partnerships between insurers and specific retail chains creating closed networks that exclude National Vision

Technological disruption including smartphone-based vision testing apps and virtual try-on reducing barriers to online purchasing

Investor Profile

value - The 127% one-year return suggests turnaround/special situation investors betting on operational improvement from depressed levels. Negative operating margins and low valuation multiples (1.1x P/S) attract value investors looking for mean reversion if management can restore store productivity. The stock's volatility and recent sharp appreciation indicate speculative/momentum interest rather than stable dividend or growth investors. Not suitable for income-focused investors given negative profitability.

Watch on Earnings
Monthly comparable store sales trends and traffic patternsStore-level four-wall EBITDA margins and breakeven store countCustomer acquisition cost trends and marketing efficiencyAverage transaction value and attachment rates for premium lens options
Health Radar
2 strong4 concern
30/100
Liquidity
0.62Concern
Leverage
0.77Strong
Coverage
5.1xStrong
ROE
5.4%Concern
ROIC
3.4%Concern
Cash
$39MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE14 analysts
BUY
+83.4%upside to target
L $22.00
Med $32.00consensus
H $40.00
Buy
1071%
Hold
429%
10 Buy (71%)4 Hold (29%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
4/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 19 — Oversold, watch for bounce
~
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.62 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 17, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 14, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 27, 2026
In 103 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 1.3%

-33.5% vs SMA 50 · -32.7% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI19.1
Oversold — potential bounce
MACD-2.37
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$30.02+72.0%
EMA 200
$25.19+44.3%
EMA 50
$25.09+43.8%
Current
$17.45
52W Low
$14.75-15.5%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$14.7518th %ile$30.02
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:1
Dist days:7
Edge:+6 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)1.8M
Recent Vol (5D)
5.7M+212%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 8 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2025
$1.8B
$1.8B$1.9B
$0.52
±4%
High7
FY2026(current)
$2.0B
$2.0B$2.0B
+8.5%$0.70+34.1%
±1%
High8
FY2027
$2.1B
$2.0B$2.1B
+4.5%$0.97+38.3%
±3%
High8
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
🔥Beat 8 consecutive quarters
Earnings HistoryEYE
Last 8Q
+68.8%avg beat
Beat 8 of 8 quarters Estimates rising
+150%
Q3'24
+140%
Q4'24
+43%
Q1'25
+17%
Q2'25
+38%
Q3'25
+8%
Q4'25
+149%
Q1'26
+5%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
BarclaysOverweight
Jul 8
UPGRADE
Goldman SachsNeutral → Buy
Jun 27
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Wilkes AlexanderCEO
$929K
Mar 11
SELL
Fahs L ReadeDir
$225K
Mar 6
SELL
Fahs L ReadeDir
$120K
Mar 6
SELL
Fahs L ReadeDir
$48K
Sep 15
SELL
Fahs L ReadeDir
$254K
Sep 16
SELL
Fahs L ReadeDir
$1.5M
Aug 28
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
BlackRock, Inc.
11.5M
2
WILLIAM BLAIR INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC
4.2M
3
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
3.1M
4
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
2.4M
5
EMERALD ADVISERS, LLC
1.5M
6
Fiera Capital Corp
1.4M
7
JUPITER ASSET MANAGEMENT LTD
1.4M
8
Boston Partners
1.4M
News & Activity

EYE News

About

national vision is one of the fastest-growing optical retailers in the country, and every day, our 8,000 employees work together to support our vision – that everyone deserves to see their best to live their best. national vision, inc. operates five companies as part of our family of optical retailers – america's best contacts & eyeglasses, eyeglass world, vision centers brought to you by walmart, vista optical inside fred meyer and optical centers on select military bases. with more than 800 retail locations in 44 states, d.c. and puerto rico, our mission is to help people by making quality eye care and eyewear more affordable and accessible.

CEO
Leonard Fahs
Bill ClarkSenior Vice President & Chief People Officer
Jared BrandmanSenior Vice President, Chief Legal & Strategy Officer, General Counsel and Secretary
Joe VanDetteSenior Vice President and Chief Brand & Marketing Officer
PeersConsumer Cyclical(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
EYE
$17.45-1.52%$1.4B29.8+900.4%148.9%1500
$264.14-1.15%$2.8T31.3+1237.8%1083.4%1521
$422.24-4.75%$1.6T352.3-293.1%400.1%1507
$297.51-2.25%$296.3B20.9+324.0%859.6%1477
$276.39+0.52%$196.4B22.6+372.3%3185.0%1478
$147.43+0.05%$163.2B30.2+711.9%910.0%1494
$218.42-2.32%$122.3B18.3+312.2%771.2%1489
Sector avg-1.63%72.2+509.3%1051.2%1495