Northwestern Energy Group Inc(NWE)

$72.52▼-0.90 (-1.23%)

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Northwestern Energy Group Inc(NWE)

NASDAQ

$72.52▼-0.90 (-1.23%)

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NWE(NWE)

NWE

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6/29/26

NORTHWESTERN ENERGY (NWE)

Monday

4:10 PM

Thesis: Northwestern Energy: the story is balanced — State regulatory commission rate case decisions and allowed ROE levels (Montana PSC, South Dakota PUC rulings)

Revenue Outlook

Metric	FY2025	FY2026E	FY2027E
Revenue	$1.6B	$1.7B	$1.8B
Rev. Growth	+6.4%	+7.5%	+5.2%
EPS	$2.95	$3.73	$3.97
EPS Growth	-19.4%	+26.5%	+6.3%
P/E (fwd)	24.4×	19.3×	18.1×

★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $1.7B — +7.5% growth in a single year.

What Moves the Stock

1State regulatory commission rate case decisions and allowed ROE levels (Montana PSC, South Dakota PUC rulings)
2Rate base growth trajectory driven by transmission/distribution capex and generation modernization investments
3Dividend policy and payout ratio sustainability (utilities typically target 60-70% payout ratios)
4Weather-driven earnings volatility (heating degree days in winter, cooling degree days in summer) despite decoupling mechanisms
5Coal plant retirement timelines and replacement generation costs (regulatory treatment of stranded assets)
6Natural gas commodity price volatility impact on customer bills and regulatory lag in cost recovery
7Electric utility operations (~65% of revenue): generation, transmission, and distribution to 390,000 customers across Montana and South Dakota
8Natural gas utility operations (~35% of revenue): distribution to 370,000 customers across Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska

FY2025 Snapshot

Revenue: $1.6B
Rev. Growth: +6.4%
Gross Margin: 82.3%
Op. Margin: 20.2%
Net Margin: 11.2%
Net Income: $181M
NI Growth: -19.2%
EPS: $2.95
1Y Return: +46.6%

My Notes

dividend - Northwestern attracts income-focused investors seeking stable, regulated cash flows and consistent dividend payments.
Rising interest rates create multiple headwinds: (1) Higher financing costs on $2.4B debt balance reduce earnings (though eventually…
Watch on earnings: Natural gas spot prices (Henry Hub) - impacts customer bills, regulatory lag, and bad debt expense, 10-year Treasury yield - primary driver of utility stock valuation multiples and cost of capital, Heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) in Montana/South Dakota - weather-driven demand volatility.

One Sentence Summary:

Northwestern Energy: the story is balanced — state regulatory commission rate case decisions and allowed roe levels (montana psc, south dakota puc rulings).

Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.

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Metric

FY2025

FY2026E

FY2027E

P/E (fwd)

24.4×

19.3×

18.1×

What Moves the Stock

1State regulatory commission rate case decisions and allowed ROE levels (Montana PSC, South Dakota PUC rulings)

2Rate base growth trajectory driven by transmission/distribution capex and generation modernization investments

3Dividend policy and payout ratio sustainability (utilities typically target 60-70% payout ratios)

4Weather-driven earnings volatility (heating degree days in winter, cooling degree days in summer) despite decoupling mechanisms

5Coal plant retirement timelines and replacement generation costs (regulatory treatment of stranded assets)

6Natural gas commodity price volatility impact on customer bills and regulatory lag in cost recovery

7Electric utility operations (~65% of revenue): generation, transmission, and distribution to 390,000 customers across Montana and South Dakota

8Natural gas utility operations (~35% of revenue): distribution to 370,000 customers across Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska

My Notes

dividend - Northwestern attracts income-focused investors seeking stable, regulated cash flows and consistent dividend payments.

Rising interest rates create multiple headwinds: (1) Higher financing costs on $2.4B debt balance reduce earnings (though eventually…

Watch on earnings: Natural gas spot prices (Henry Hub) - impacts customer bills, regulatory lag, and bad debt expense, 10-year Treasury yield - primary driver of utility stock valuation multiples and cost of capital, Heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) in Montana/South Dakota - weather-driven demand volatility.

NORTHWESTERN ENERGY (NWE)

Revenue Outlook

What Moves the Stock

NWE Chart

My Notes

One Sentence Summary:

Explore More

NORTHWESTERN ENERGY (NWE)

Revenue Outlook

What Moves the Stock

NWE Chart

My Notes

One Sentence Summary: