REAL
Next earnings: Aug 6, 2026 · After close
Signal
Bearish Setup2
Price
1
Move-3.10%Selling pressure
Volume
1
Volume0.7× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 36Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
9.35
Open
9.12
Day Range8.93 – 9.41
8.93
9.41
52W Range4.70 – 17.39
4.70
17.39
34% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
3.7M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
-14.4x
Not profitable
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
3.10
High vol
Performance
1D
-3.10%
5D
-11.70%
1M
-13.71%
3M
-20.87%
6M
-34.58%
YTD
-42.59%
1Y
+71.92%
Best: 1Y (+71.92%)Worst: YTD (-42.59%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +17% YoY · 72% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E not available
Health
WEAK
CR 0.8 (low) · FCF $0.04/sh
Lean Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$2.62B
Revenue TTM$722.53M
Net Income TTM-$65.26M
Free Cash Flow$12.59M
Gross Margin72.2%
Net Margin-9.0%
Operating Margin-1.9%
Return on Equity17.4%
Return on Assets-16.9%
Debt / Equity-1.29
Current Ratio0.84
EPS TTM$-0.22
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) growth and take rate trends - acceleration or deceleration in luxury consignment volumes directly impacts revenue trajectory

Path to profitability metrics - adjusted EBITDA margin progression, marketing efficiency (CAC payback periods), and timeline to positive free cash flow

Active buyer growth and repeat purchase rates - cohort retention and frequency drive unit economics and validate the marketplace flywheel

Competitive positioning announcements - market share data versus Vestiaire Collective, Fashionphile, Rebag, and traditional luxury retailers entering resale

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Luxury resale is highly discretionary and correlates strongly with high-net-worth consumer confidence and wealth effects. During economic downturns, consignment supply may increase (consumers liquidating assets) but buyer demand typically contracts more severely as luxury purchases defer. The business saw significant volatility during 2022-2023 as inflation and market volatility impacted both sides of the marketplace. Revenue growth of 9.3% suggests current macro conditions are supportive but not robust.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates negatively impact The RealReal through multiple channels: (1) higher discount rates compress valuation multiples for unprofitable growth companies, (2) reduced consumer credit availability and higher borrowing costs dampen discretionary luxury spending, (3) wealth effects from declining equity and real estate markets reduce high-net-worth consumer propensity to purchase luxury goods, and (4) increased cost of capital makes the path to profitability more expensive if external financing is required. The negative free cash flow and 0.81 current ratio suggest potential refinancing needs are rate-sensitive.

Key Risks

Brand-direct resale initiatives: Luxury brands including Gucci, Burberry, and Stella McCartney have launched proprietary resale platforms, potentially disintermediating third-party marketplaces and capturing higher-margin authenticated resale revenue

Authentication commoditization: Advances in AI-powered authentication and blockchain provenance tracking could erode The RealReal's core competitive advantage, reducing barriers to entry for new competitors

Regulatory risk around consignment accounting and consumer protection laws governing authentication guarantees and consignor payment terms

Investor Profile

growth - The stock attracts growth investors betting on the secular shift to circular economy and luxury resale penetration expanding from current ~5% to 15-20% of luxury market by 2030. The 33.1% one-year return and high revenue multiple (4.8x sales) reflect growth expectations, but the -23.1% three-month decline suggests momentum investors are rotating out amid profitability concerns. Not suitable for value or income investors given negative earnings, no dividend, and uncertain path to sustainable profitability.

Watch on Earnings
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UMCSENT) - leading indicator for discretionary luxury spendingS&P 500 and Nasdaq performance - wealth effects drive high-net-worth consumer behavior and luxury resale activityGross Merchandise Value (GMV) quarterly growth rates and sequential trendsTake rate trends by category (jewelry, handbags, apparel) - indicates pricing power and competitive positioning
Health Radar
3 strong3 concern
48/100
Liquidity
0.84Concern
Leverage
-1.29Strong
Coverage
-0.5xConcern
ROE
17.4%Strong
ROIC
-8.0%Concern
Cash
$151MStrong
ANALYST COVERAGE25 analysts
BUY
+87.6%upside to target
L $13.00
Med $17.00consensus
H $20.00
Buy
1352%
Hold
1248%
13 Buy (52%)12 Hold (48%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
1 of 5 signals bullish
2/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 36 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.84 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 18, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 14, 2026
In 89 days
PDividend PaymentAug 28, 2026
In 103 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 9.4%

-13.2% vs SMA 50 · -21.4% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI36.0
Momentum fading
MACD-0.37
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$17.39+92.0%
EMA 50
$11.00+21.4%
EMA 200
$10.35+14.3%
Current
$9.06
52W Low
$4.70-48.1%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$4.7034th %ile$17.39
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:2
Dist days:6
Edge:+4 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)3.5M
Recent Vol (5D)
4.0M+14%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 7 analysts
Analyst revisions:Revenue↑ Revised Up

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$565.3M
$558.8M$573.5M
-$0.88
±2%
Moderate3
FY2024
$600.2M
$593.3M$609.0M
+6.2%-$0.46
±2%
Moderate4
FY2025
$689.5M
$686.9M$697.3M
+14.9%-$0.14
±18%
High7
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryREAL
Last 8Q
-318.6%avg beat
Beat 4 of 8 quartersMissed 3 Estimates rising
+13%
Q3'24
+57%
Q4'24
-1967%
Q1'25
-8%
Q2'25
+13%
Q3'25
-708%
Q4'25
+50%
Q1'26
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
KeyBancSector Weight → Overweight
Nov 5
UPGRADE
Wells FargoOverweight
Dec 9
UPGRADE
Bank of America Sec…Underperform → Neutral
Jun 29
UPGRADE
Bank of America Sec…Underperform
Aug 10
DOWNGRADE
Credit SuisseOutperform → Neutral
Apr 26
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Madan Gopal AjayCFO
$479K
Mar 19
SELL
Madan Gopal AjayCFO
$252K
Feb 23
SELL
Madan Gopal AjayCFO
$84K
Feb 23
SELL
Friang Luke ThomasChief Product …
$95K
Feb 23
SELL
Friang Luke ThomasChief Product …
$89K
Feb 23
SELL
Friang Luke ThomasChief Product …
$26K
Feb 23
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
BlackRock, Inc.
9.1M
2
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
4.0M
3
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC
2.5M
4
BNP PARIBAS ARBITRAGE, SNC
2.3M
5
Nuveen, LLC
2.2M
6
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC
1.6M
7
Crestwood Capital Management, L.P.
1.4M
8
UBS Group AG
1.4M
News & Activity

REAL News

About

the realreal is the world’s premier online luxury resale store. offering authenticated, pre-owned, designer fashion including chanel, hermès, manolo blahnik and cartier — all at up to 90 percent off retail prices —the realreal eliminates the uncertainty of purchasing luxury goods online. our team of luxury experts and skilled gemologists curates, evaluates and authenticates the best clothing, handbags, shoes and fine jewelry, creating the web’s best destination for women’s and men’s luxury resale. the realreal also offers fine art, including paintings, prints & editions, drawings, photographs, mixed media and tabletop sculpture from the modern, post-war and contemporary eras. our seasoned team of expert curators researches and authenticates every piece of fine art. a venture capital-funded company, the realreal was founded by e-commerce veteran julie wainwright. for further information, please email us at contact@therealreal.com. you can also download our app here: https://itunes

Jessica FortierSenior Vice President of Operations
Ming LoSenior Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer & Corporate Controller
Robert BurrisSenior Vice President of Talent
PeersConsumer Cyclical(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
REAL
$9.06-3.10%$2.6B+1538.1%-603.3%1500
$264.14-1.15%$2.8T31.3+1237.8%1083.4%1521
$422.24-4.75%$1.6T352.3-293.1%400.1%1507
$297.51-2.25%$296.3B20.9+324.0%859.6%1477
$276.39+0.52%$196.4B22.6+372.3%3185.0%1478
$147.43+0.05%$163.2B30.2+711.9%910.0%1494
$218.42-2.32%$122.3B18.3+312.2%771.2%1489
Sector avg-1.86%79.3+600.5%943.7%1495