Monthly order trends and net new order growth rates, particularly in key markets like Phoenix, Dallas-Fort Worth, Tampa, and Charlotte
Gross margin trajectory driven by pricing power, construction cost inflation (lumber, labor), and product mix shifts between entry-level and move-up segments
Mortgage rate movements and their impact on buyer affordability, with 50-75 basis point rate changes materially affecting traffic and conversion rates
Land acquisition strategy and community count growth, signaling future delivery capacity and market share expansion
high - Homebuilding is among the most cyclical industries, directly tied to employment growth, wage trends, household formation, and consumer confidence. During recessions, home sales typically decline 30-50% as buyers delay purchases. The company's Sun Belt focus provides some insulation through migration trends and job growth, but cannot offset broad economic weakness. Construction activity leads GDP cycles, making TMHC an early-cycle indicator.
Mortgage rates are the single most important variable affecting demand. A 100 basis point increase in 30-year mortgage rates reduces buyer purchasing power by approximately 10-12%, directly impacting order rates and forcing price adjustments. Rising rates also increase TMHC's construction financing costs and reduce the present value of future cash flows, compressing valuation multiples. The company's debt/equity of 0.37 provides some cushion, but floating-rate construction loans expose margins to rate volatility.
Affordability crisis driven by home price appreciation outpacing wage growth, with median home prices at 5-6x median household income in many markets, well above historical 3-4x ratios
Labor shortages in skilled trades (framers, electricians, plumbers) constraining construction capacity and inflating costs, with demographic trends suggesting persistent shortages
Zoning restrictions and NIMBY opposition limiting land supply in high-demand coastal markets, creating structural supply-demand imbalances
value - TMHC trades at 0.8x sales and 1.0x book value, attracting value investors seeking cyclical recovery plays and mean reversion. The stock appeals to investors with 12-24 month horizons willing to time housing cycles. Modest 12.8% ROE and negative recent growth deter growth investors, while lack of dividend (typical for homebuilders reinvesting in land) limits income-focused buyers. Opportunistic hedge funds and long/short equity managers use TMHC for macro housing exposure.
No analyst coverage available for this stock.
Trend
-4.0% vs SMA 50 · -7.0% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
TMHC News
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About
taylor morrison home corporation (nyse:tmhc) is a leading national homebuilder and developer who was recently recognized as america’s most trusted™ home builder. based in scottsdale, arizona we operate under two well-established brands, taylor morrison and darling homes. we create homes and communities that inspire, delight and enhance the quality of life for our customers. we serve a wide array of consumer cohorts from coast to coast, with a focus on first-time, move-up, luxury, and 55-plus. in texas, darling homes builds communities with a focus on individuality and custom detail while delivering on the taylor morrison standard of excellence. in all of our markets, we build and sell a broad mix of homes across diverse price points ranging from the low $100,000’s to more than $1,000,000. we attract a varied array of home buyers using a proprietary consumer segmentation model. we are passionate about building the kinds of homes and communities in which our customers aspire to live whil
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMHC◀ | $58.42 | -0.58% | $5.6B | 8.6 | -57.1% | 963.5% | 1500 |
| $270.14 | +1.27% | $2.9T | 31.8 | +1237.8% | 1083.4% | 1515 | |
| $389.52 | +2.41% | $1.5T | 326.1 | -293.1% | 400.1% | 1490 | |
| $313.84 | -1.50% | $322.6B | 22.7 | +324.0% | 859.6% | 1485 | |
| $284.77 | -2.37% | $203.8B | 23.9 | +372.3% | 3185.0% | 1488 | |
| $153.57 | +0.05% | $174.2B | 32.1 | +711.9% | 910.0% | 1510 | |
| $165.54 | +0.75% | $131.4B | 21.8 | +1338.7% | 2007.7% | 1489 | |
| Sector avg | — | +0.01% | — | 66.7 | +519.2% | 1344.2% | 1497 |