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Thesis: Jbs: the story is balanced — Protein spread margins - specifically the gap between live cattle/hog prices (tracked via CME futures) and wholesale…
★ Analysts see FY2027 revenue reaching $491.0B — +2.5% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
1Protein spread margins - specifically the gap between live cattle/hog prices (tracked via CME futures) and wholesale beef/pork cutout values, which can swing 500+ basis points quarterly
2US and Brazilian cattle herd dynamics - multi-year cattle cycles affecting slaughter volumes and input costs, with US herd currently in liquidation phase
3China import demand for beef and pork - regulatory approvals, African Swine Fever impacts, and trade policy shifts materially affect export volumes and pricing
4Feed grain costs (corn/soybean meal) - directly impact poultry production economics and indirectly affect livestock costs through producer margins
5Currency fluctuations (BRL/USD, AUD/USD) - significant translation effects given 40%+ revenue from non-US operations and export competitiveness impacts
6Beef processing and sales (estimated 45-50% of revenue) - operates major slaughter facilities in US, Brazil, Australia with daily capacity exceeding 90,000 head globally
7Poultry processing (estimated 30-35% of revenue) - includes Pilgrim's Pride operations in US/Mexico and Seara in Brazil with integrated breeding-to-retail operations
8Pork processing (estimated 15-20% of revenue) - US operations with daily slaughter capacity and value-added prepared foods division
value - The stock trades at deep discount to sales (0.4x P/S) and enterprise value (5.2x EV/EBITDA) reflecting concerns about cyclicality…
Rising rates increase financing costs on the company's substantial debt load (Debt/Equity of 2.56)…
Watch on earnings: CME live cattle futures (LEUSX) and feeder cattle prices - leading indicator of beef segment input costs, CME lean hog futures (HEUSX) - tracks pork segment raw material costs, Corn (ZCUSX) and soybean meal futures - primary feed ingredients affecting poultry economics and livestock producer margins.
One Sentence Summary:
Jbs: the story is balanced — protein spread margins - specifically the gap between live cattle/hog prices (tracked via cme futures) and wholesale beef/pork cutout values.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.